Zeta Global Grows Fast but Dilution Lowers Fair Value
Feb 27, 2025
Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price.
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Watch List
| APPF | -3.02% |
| CMG | 43.83% |
| VEEV | 16.09% |
| INTU | 19.56% |
| WDAY | -7.52% |
| PSTG | -0.65% |
| RDDT | 18.10% |
| NTNX | 24.37% |
| CRWD | 94.01% |
| SE | 26.50% |
| SNOW | 13.14% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -36.44% |
| SEMR | -33.35% |
| TSM | -40.82% |
| ZETA | -27.00% |
| GOOG | -49.43% |
| NYAX | -28.98% |
| MSFT | -28.62% |
| ODD | -29.76% |
| FLYW | -42.32% |
| HRMY | -59.44% |
| YOU | -38.27% |
| ABNB | -31.17% |
| ADBE | -42.81% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -22.86% |
| VTEX | -14.24% |
| ASR | -23.26% |
| CELH | 46.96% |
| TOST | 20.33% |
| CPNG | -11.55% |
| HIMS | -19.74% |
| PAYC | -18.13% |
| MNDY | 18.61% |
| GLBE | -21.26% |
| ZS | 32.26% |
| V | -7.16% |
| ADSK | -0.03% |
| NOW | 14.16% |
| MELI | -23.30% |
| FTNT | -0.20% |
| TEAM | 0.30% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates