Rejecting AMD
Feb 4, 2025
We had originally looked into AMD as Watch List stock, given its strong leadership and opportunities in AI. But there are just too many things I don't like about this CPU and GPU maker after reviewing Q4 results. The Xilinx deal was clearly a massive over-pay, hurting AMD's return on capital for years to come. I'm also not seeing cash flow through like it needs to, to justify anything close to the current valuation. Finally, this is a hardware maker prone to the wild cyclical swings of the semiconductor industry. There are just too many "dings" on the stock to continue watching it, so it moves to the "reject" pile.
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Watch List
| APPF | 1.76% |
| CMG | 41.39% |
| VEEV | 15.19% |
| INTU | 18.43% |
| WDAY | -7.41% |
| PSTG | -1.35% |
| RDDT | 21.21% |
| NTNX | 25.72% |
| CRWD | 93.19% |
| SE | 28.99% |
| SNOW | 13.54% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -36.17% |
| SEMR | -34.19% |
| TSM | -41.43% |
| ZETA | -25.56% |
| GOOG | -49.87% |
| NYAX | -28.83% |
| MSFT | -28.75% |
| ODD | -28.48% |
| FLYW | -41.42% |
| HRMY | -59.78% |
| YOU | -38.88% |
| ABNB | -30.73% |
| ADBE | -42.67% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ASML | -23.38% |
| VTEX | -14.40% |
| ASR | -24.34% |
| CELH | 43.72% |
| TOST | 19.13% |
| CPNG | -11.62% |
| HIMS | -18.63% |
| PAYC | -18.53% |
| MNDY | 18.86% |
| GLBE | -22.26% |
| ZS | 34.88% |
| V | -6.51% |
| ADSK | 0.54% |
| NOW | 13.21% |
| MELI | -23.90% |
| FTNT | 0.63% |
| TEAM | 0.80% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates